Everyone Says Retail Media Has Peaked. Here’s Why They’re Wrong

This article first appeared on the ANA website here.

Recent weeks have seen an eye-grabbing, hand-wringing storyline take hold in media press: Retail media is faltering and entering a backlash phase. 

But as pundits debate whether retail media has peaked, here's what they're missing: 70 percent of companies said they were increasing their retail media budgets this year, making it the fastest-growing ad channel in the U.S., according to TransUnion Newsroom.

That's not a backlash — that's a market hitting the mainstream.

Yes, retail media growth rates are down from their triple-digit heights. All new markets plateau at some stage and the Grocery Media sector is definitely plateauing. However, deceleration doesn't mean decline.

The predicted consolidation from 250 players to a handful of survivors — a narrative repeated again and again — assumes that retail media is a zero-sum game. It's not. Done well, retail media is a triple-win game where retailers, advertisers and customers all benefit equally.

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Commerce media is in its infancy. As financial services (Chase, Revolut, Amex), travel (United, Marriott), and telecommunications (T-Mobile) enter the space, we see the pie expanding. We're not heading toward consolidation. We're heading toward specialized growth.

Indeed, the future isn't 10 to 20 players. It's 10 to 20 players per vertical. That's because the market isn't shrinking. It's expanding into new sectors, new use cases and new channels.

Five reasons the smart money is flooding into owned media:

1. The commerce opportunity is just getting started.
   While grocery media shows signs of maturity, other sectors have massive growth still ahead. Financial services, multi-brand retailers, travel, telecommunications and convenience are all just beginning to unlock their owned media potential.
2. Retail media continues to capture the biggest share of ad growth.
   Even with decelerated rates, retail media remains forecast to outpace every other advertising channel. In times of shrinking marketing budgets, and pressure to deliver more and more ROI, practitioners naturally direct funds where ROI is strongest: at the point of purchase.
3. First-party data remains unbeatable.
   No amount of targeting can compete with actual purchase data. As privacy regulations tighten up and third-party cookies disappear, channels that can target real buyers and report on actual sales — not just intent and impressions — will only grow stronger. This is why companies like Chase and Mastercard are investing in commerce media capabilities, they have data for all industry sectors.
4. The opportunity extends far beyond media sales.
   Forward-thinking companies are recognizing the potential of partnerships, sponsorships and loyalty as indirect sources of media revenue These aren't ad networks. They are marketing networks with multiple revenue streams. Organizations are realizing that the media support they give to sponsorship and reward offer partners has a value and that value needs to be recognized in deals.
5. The 90 percent opportunity remains untapped.
   While everyone fixates on digital display inventory, our data shows that 90 percent of owned media value remains trapped offline — in store signage, app real estate, email ecosystems and physical environments like in-store. Companies are sitting on an average of $48 million annually in untapped owned media value, according to our data.

The $48 Million Reality Check

Here's what the backlash narrative completely misses: The industry at large is focused on the 10 percent of value residing in digital display while ignoring the 90 percent hiding in plain sight across physical and one-to-one touchpoints.

The savviest players aren't just building another digital retail media network. They're valuing and monetizing their entire owned media footprint — from in-store media (average 48 percent of total value) to email (average 30 percent of total value) to print placements (average 22 percent of total value, according to Sonder research).

Brands like Chase, T-Mobile, and United aren't buying in because it's trendy. They understand that owned media — properly valued and managed — delivers higher margins and better attribution than any paid channel.

2026 Won't Be a Shakeout — It'll Be a Shakeup

The consolidation predictions assume current players are the only players. But retail media's definition is limiting and always has been. Commerce media plus alternative indirect revenue models now encompass any company with first-party data and customer touchpoints.

The companies that will struggle aren't those facing measurement hurdles or creative constraints, according to InternetRetailing. It will be those treating retail media as a side hustle rather than a core competency. Companies that treat their media assets like valuable real estate capture the full value. Those that give them away in partnership deals leave significant money on the table.

The Backlash Bottom Line

The retail media "backlash" will age as well as predictions that search advertising peaked in 2005 or that social media was a fad in 2010. Critics are right that the easy money phase is over. What they miss is that the real money phase has just begun.

The friction points aren't signs of decline. They're the sound of a rapidly maturing industry building infrastructure for the next decade of growth. And while critics debate whether the glass is half empty, smart money is buying more glasses.

The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the ANA or imply endorsement from the ANA.